Research
Academic
Peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters.
Academic
Assessing the Socio-Economic Impact of the Circular Economy through Input-Output Modelling: Evidence from Developing Countries
Introduces NICE (National Impacts of Circular Economy), an Eora input-output based method for assessing how circular-economy interventions affect economic and social indicators in developing countries.
Academic
Green Hydrogen Technology: Analysis of the Economic Preconditions in the Future Development of Asia — book chapter
An analysis of the economic preconditions shaping the future development of green hydrogen technology across Asia.
Academic
An Analysis of ICT Hardware Manufacturing in Industrialized Economies: Growth Patterns, Productivity Performance, and Driving Forces
Using EU KLEMS growth accounting for 13 industrialised economies (2000–2015), we find total factor productivity, labour quality, software investment, and R&D drive ICT-manufacturing growth — with the US showing markedly stronger resilience through the 2008–09 crisis than the EU.
Academic
Price Setting on the Two Sides of the Atlantic — Evidence from Supermarket Scanner Data
We compare supermarket price setting in the US and the euro area and its impact on food inflation. Higher frequency and stronger state-dependence of price changes make US supermarket inflation more flexible than in the euro area — driven mainly by larger cross-sectional volatility in the US.
Academic
Deindustrialization in Developed Countries amid Accelerated Globalization: Patterns, Influencers, and Policy Insights
Across 12 developed economies (1970–2015), deindustrialisation is a persistent pattern that shifted structurally after 1990 as North–South trade accelerated; higher-productivity and low-tech industries respond differently, and the effect is stronger in larger, deficit-prone economies.
Academic
Switching It Up: The Effect of Energy Price Reforms in Oman
Using firm-level micro-data on Omani manufacturers, we show fossil-fuel price increases raise productivity, efficiency, and business upgrading — evidence that subsidy reform can drive modernisation alongside environmental goals.
Academic
Sectoral Dynamics — book chapter
Revisiting Chenery’s structural-change tradition with modern data: manufacturing broadly follows the classic U-curve, but high-tech sub-sectors buck the trend and keep expanding employment even at higher income levels.
Academic
The Importance of Manufacturing Development and Structural Change for Pro-Poor Growth — book chapter
Disaggregating structural-change patterns within manufacturing to map a path of inclusive industrial development for pro-poor growth, and the role of industrial policy design in getting there.
Academic
Revisiting Reinhart and Rogoff after the Crisis: A Time Series Perspective
A time-series re-examination of the debt–growth debate finds little support for high debt causing lower growth — if anything, economic slumps appear to cause debt build-ups rather than the reverse.
Under Review
Manuscripts under peer review at a journal.
Under review
Firm-Level Effects of Energy Price Increases: Review of Key Principles, Approaches and Insights from Recent Literature
Reviews the key principles, empirical approaches and recent evidence on how energy-price increases affect firm performance.
Working Papers
Papers circulated as working or occasional papers.
Working paper
What Was the Impact of the Pandemic and Energy-Food Shocks on European Consumers’ “Everyday Spending”? Insights from a New Dataset of Monthly Card Spending for 12 Countries and 9 Spending Categories
A new monthly card-spending dataset spanning 12 countries and 9 categories, used to trace how the pandemic and the energy/food price shocks reshaped “everyday spending” across Europe.
Working paper
Energy Prices and Competitiveness in the Manufacturing Sector
Extends earlier firm-level evidence on energy prices and competitiveness to a broader cross-country manufacturing setting.
Working paper
Price Adjustment in the Euro Area in the Low-Inflation Period: Evidence from Consumer and Producer Micro Price Data
Five stylised facts on euro-area price adjustment from micro price data: infrequent but large price changes, mild state-dependence, and idiosyncratic shocks as the main driver of inflation dynamics.
Working paper
The Effects of Energy Prices on Firm Competitiveness: Evidence from Chile
Using Chile’s Annual National Industrial Survey, energy-price increases generally don’t hurt competitiveness — the effect depends on fuel type, with fossil-fuel price rises linked to higher investment and productivity, consistent with a strong Porter-hypothesis result.
Working paper
Expanded Real Value-Added Data for Manufacturing: A New Approach to Measuring Sub-Sectoral Manufacturing Development
A new single-deflation method expands real value-added coverage in UNIDO’s INDSTAT database, especially for lower-income economies — enabling far more detailed measurement of manufacturing performance.
Policy
Institutional publications written directly for policymakers and practitioners, rather than aimed at a journal.
Policy
Firm-Level Effects of Energy Price Increases: Evidence and Insights from Recent Research
A synthesis of recent evidence on how energy-subsidy reform affects firms, with recommendations for evaluating future policy impacts.
Policy
Achieving Sustainable Development: New Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Industrialization on Social and Environmental Outcomes — book chapter
New empirical evidence on how industrialisation interacts with social and environmental Sustainable Development Goals — a highly complex process meeting an equally complex set of targets.
Work in Progress
Work under way or about to be released.
Work in progress
Measuring Global Value Chain Participation in UK Regions: A Technical Background Note
Builds the first subnational Supply-Use and Input-Output tables for the 12 UK regions — 50 industries, 2017–21, combining official microdata with national and regional statistics — and links them into the OECD’s Inter-Country Input-Output framework, enabling the first subnational Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators for the UK.
Work in progress
UK Regions in the Global Economy
Using the first subnational TiVA estimates for the UK, shows that UK regions are deeply embedded in domestic and global value chains: in 2019 only 58% of the value added in regional exports was generated locally, with 22% coming from other UK regions and 20% from abroad.
Work in progress
Measuring and Understanding Global Value Chains and Foreign Direct Investment in Regions
A forthcoming OECD report on how regions take part in global value chains and attract foreign direct investment.
Work in progress
Monetary Policy and Green Investment Impacts: Evidence from Exchange-Traded Funds
Using synthetic difference-in-differences on ETF data, monetary tightening hits green-investment returns harder than the wider market — a case for shielding green investment from financial-stress spillovers.
Work in progress
Testing the Debt Threshold Hypothesis: A Structural Break Threshold Granger Causality Test under Cross-Sectional Dependence
Proposes a new bootstrap-based test for regime-dependent Granger causality in cross-sectionally dependent panels, with Monte Carlo evidence that it outperforms conventional approaches.